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probably a good 8 or 10 year wait.

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For archery elk hunts.......I disagree slightly. Understand the stats and hunt some of the "not so popular" units and you can get a much clearer picture. I've been drawn for archery bull elk three times since 1993. I probably could have been drawn the last two years, but didn't like the dates so I chose a BP only. This year I have a really good chance of drawing (better dates this year). Learn some of the "lesser" units and you have the chance to hunt every 5-6 years.......however, I know several bowhunters that get drawn in these units their first time in.

To draw a good elk tag for a NR i would say around 5 to 7 years for a good tag a the trophy unit like 9 or 10 probably a little longer. There is a chance of drawing with less or first time putting in. Arizona is a great state to hunt when you get drawn lots of great areas and big bulls. For deer if you are a archer you can by a OTC tag for most all the state except the kaibab area unit 12 and 13. Drawing a rifle tag up in the strip will take a while to draw. Elk tags are due feb 14 so get them in and good luck

To answer your question, yes there are many of the higher demand elk units that will reach the 10% NR cap before any tags fall to the random drawing for NRs, so you will need to have the maximum number of points to draw a permit in those units (8,9,10 and several others). For a NR to draw a Unit 9 tag, it's currently at least a 15 year wait. As a resident, it takes about 13 years before you are in the 20% max point pool. However, a resident could potentially draw it in the random drawing with no points (a NR could not).

All archery deer tags south of the big hole are OTC, with a drawing for those north of the ditch. The most premium of those could take quite a few years to draw as well.

Only you can decide if it's worth it, but like others have said, you could draw less popular units in half the time and even have a chance to draw a few of the very least popular hunts in the first year or two.